The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 11%–21%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Across prediction markets, the collective odds suggest roughly a 20% chance that Aaron Taylor-Johnson will be the next James Bond. The real-money market (Kalshi) shows higher odds than the play-money market (Manifold), likely due to differences in audience or incentive structure.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.