Every prediction market, in one neutral view.

✨ The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.

✨ The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.

✨ The 2028 presidential field is essentially a blank slate: no candidate has even 1% in this market, and the only recent headlines concern the 2026 midterms, not the 2028 race, so the biggest shift is the absence of any shift.

✨ The market is essentially a one-horse race, pricing a permanent peace deal by June 15 at 100% despite a string of headlines showing Iran refusing to meet with U.S. envoys (Reuters, Jul 1) and rising military tensions (Crypto Briefing, Jul 21), suggesting either a specific undisclosed catalyst or a severe mispricing.

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.

✨ The field is moderately concentrated, with the top three candidates holding 43% of the odds, but the biggest recent shift is the surge of election-denier candidates in Arizona's GOP primaries, which may boost JD Vance's national standing by solidifying his alignment with the Trump base.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The 57% odds suggest a slight bullish tilt but lack conviction, as the market is pricing in a modest probability of Bitcoin breaking the $64k threshold by month-end without any recent news catalyst.

Yes ≈ 59% chance

✨ Bitcoin has only five days left in July to spike above $67,500, and despite a slight uptick from Japan ETF optimism, the probability remains low after a week of decline, reflecting skepticism that a sudden surge will occur.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 49% chance

✨ The field is extremely fragmented with no candidate above 5%, reflecting deep uncertainty about Bitcoin's 2026 price despite a recent rally to $66,300; the biggest shift is the surge past $66,000 in late July, driven by ETF inflows near $1 billion in six days, but bearish warnings and security exploits keep the odds scattered.

✨ The field is extremely thin and pessimistic, with only 4% total probability assigned to any date before 2027, and the June 2026 target has already expired at 0% — the market is pricing near-zero confidence in a $150k Bitcoin price this year, despite bullish analyst calls.

✨ The field is heavily concentrated on Ethereum ending 2026 below $1,500 (42% share), with the only other significant candidate being below $1,000 (12%). The biggest recent shift is the rise in the 'below 1,500' probability following the July 18 warning about thin volumes increasing the risk of a drop below $1.8K, which overshadowed bullish patterns reported on July 20.

Yes ≈ 77% chance

✨ The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Bitcoin reaching $65k and $75k in 2026, both at 99%, reflecting the current price near $64k and a strong bullish consensus. The single biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for $65k to near certainty as Bitcoin approached that level, confirmed by the July 20 headline 'Bitcoin price hits $65K wall'.

✨ Despite bullish predictions for a September turnaround, Bitcoin's price languishes near $63k, far from $100k, and a death cross in March has dampened hopes for a 2026 recovery. The market assigns only a 25% chance, reflecting skepticism that any near-term catalyst can fuel a 58% rally.

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The field is wide open with no driver above 5%, reflecting a highly competitive season where no single contender has broken away; the biggest recent shift is the lack of any shift, as odds remain flat despite the Hungarian GP weekend (Sky Sports, Jul 23).

✨ The market is completely flat at zero percent for every candidate, reflecting extreme uncertainty despite a flurry of media speculation (The New York Times, Jul 23) and a nine-figure market size; the biggest recent shift is the absence of any movement, with no announcement having been made.

✨ The NFL Champion 2027 market is exceptionally diffuse — the top three teams combine for just 7%, and only the Chargers (5%) clear the 5% threshold — reflecting extreme uncertainty with no dominant narrative or recent news driving any single candidate. The only modest shift is a slight uptick in Buccaneers chatter following a former Super Bowl champion's claim about the 2026 team, but at 1% it barely moves the needle.

✨ The market is extremely fragmented with no team above 5%, reflecting a highly competitive season; the recent 14-game winning streak by the Red Sox and bullish analyst reports on the Phillies have not yet propelled either to the top of the odds.

✨ Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Oil surged to a six-week high of $90 on Iran tensions, but the probability of hitting $95 collapsed 34 points in a day as the rally stalled and demand fears resurfaced, leaving the market betting the current geopolitical premium is insufficient for another $5 leap in July's final days.

Yes ≈ 23% chance

✨ The market sees virtually no chance the Fed will raise the federal funds rate above 4% at the Jul 29 meeting, despite earlier rate-hike signals and a new hawkish chair; the real story is that easing expectations have evaporated but a hike is still seen as extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome—zero rate cuts in 2026—at 85%, with the only other candidate (11 cuts) negligible. The single biggest recent shift is the strengthening of the zero-cut case following Fed Chair Warsh's statement on July 23 signaling no immediate rate cuts, reinforcing the hawkish stance from the July 21 Reuters poll that highlighted high chances of a hike.

✨ The market is effectively a binary bet on whether conflict-driven supply disruptions will push WTI past $95, with $90 already certain. The single biggest shift is the escalation of the Middle East war to two chokepoints, which propelled oil to $100 (likely Brent) and WTI to its six-week high of $90 (Türkiye Today, investingLive, Jul 23).

✨ The field is extremely open, with 86% of probability on unnamed candidates, despite Anthropic leading at 14% — reflecting the market's uncertainty over which of several mega-IPOs (SpaceX, CXMT, etc.) will ultimately be the largest by market cap. The single biggest recent shift is the SpaceX IPO (CBS News, Jul 25), which is not listed as a candidate, suggesting the market may be slow to adjust or is focused on future IPOs.

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on NVIDIA at 56%, with Saudi Aramco at 0% and the rest of the top three summing to just 57%, meaning only one candidate has any real probability; the biggest recent shift is the absence of any movement for Saudi Aramco despite its historical size, likely because no recent headline has boosted its valuation or market position.

✨ The market is effectively a two-way contest between moderate growth (0.00%-1.00%) and above-1% growth, with contraction virtually ruled out; the odds have likely been shaped by persistent global headwinds such as China's slowing economy (Reuters, Jul 15) and US clean-energy cancellations (E2, Jul 16), which dampen the case for higher UK growth.

✨ The market's 5% odds reflect that SpaceX would need an unprecedented launch cadence in the final days of July to exceed 14 launches, and recent engine failures on Starship reduce the chances of a surge.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ Despite a flurry of speculative articles and celebrity chatter, the market sees near-zero chance of an official U.S. confirmation of aliens before 2027, because no credible government or scientific body has made a definitive statement and the resolution criteria are extremely narrow.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ The field is a binary certainty: the market is 100% sure SpaceX's closing market cap will exceed $2T but 0% sure it will exceed $3T, implying a narrow expected range despite a volatile post-IPO trajectory that saw a 49% rally followed by a $400B loss and a fizzle near the IPO price. The biggest recent shift: the >$3T probability collapsed from a non-zero level to 0% after the post-IPO hangover (Business Insider, Jun 23).

✨ The field is highly fragmented with three roughly equal candidates, but the most notable recent shift is the emergence of a 'Less than $20B' option at 40%, likely reflecting skepticism about Discord's ability to command a premium valuation after a travel-focused article (Mshale, Jul 12) highlighted a service outage, undermining confidence in its reliability and growth narrative.

✨ The field has collapsed to a near-certainty for Anthropic, with the only recent shift being a July 25 OddsShopper article that ranked 8 AI models and likely confirmed Anthropic's lead, pushing OpenAI to 0%.

✨ The market has effectively resolved: OpenAI released GPT-5.6 Sol on July 25, placing the release squarely within the July 31 window and making the June 30 outcome impossible. The single biggest shift was the release itself, which collapsed all uncertainty into a near-certain July 31 outcome.

✨ The market is essentially flat with both listed candidates at 0% odds, but the biggest recent shift is the record-breaking performance of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ in late July, which is not a market candidate — creating a glaring mismatch between box office reality and trader sentiment.

✨ The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on the 'Other' option (96%), reflecting the market's near-certainty that the streak will far exceed 57 weeks, following the official confirmation that the show has already spent 52 consecutive weeks in the top 10 (Netflix, Jun 18).

Yes ≈ 88% chance

✨ The 70% odds that Americans are getting dumber reflect a media-driven narrative linking AI tool use to cognitive decline, but the evidence is mostly anecdotal and lacks rigorous longitudinal data, making the market more a bet on cultural perception than on measurable intelligence.

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

✨ The race was nearly certain at 100% 24 hours ago but has since crashed 51 points to 49% with no apparent catalyst, leaving the field unusually wide open for such a rapid reversal.

✨ This two-player market appears highly concentrated on the more experienced pro, Bernard Tomic, with no recent headline-driven shift—the single biggest movement would be the match itself, but no catalyst has emerged yet.

Yes ≈ 100% chance

✨ Oil surged to a six-week high of $90 on Iran tensions, but the probability of hitting $95 collapsed 34 points in a day as the rally stalled and demand fears resurfaced, leaving the market betting the current geopolitical premium is insufficient for another $5 leap in July's final days.

Yes ≈ 23% chance

✨ Despite a sharp 18-point drop in the past 24 hours, the market still prices a 14% chance of a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31, even as US-Iran military strikes escalate and Iran activates air defenses in Tehran.

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 71% chance

✨ The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by July 31 have surged 25 points in 24 hours, driven by reports of a pending agreement, but the US president's own skepticism and ongoing military strikes suggest the deal may not hold or be finalized in time.

Yes ≈ 41% chance

✨ The odds have surged 42 points in a week, driven by Iran's secret ceasefire proposal and a US House vote to constrain war, suggesting markets now see a temporary halt as more likely than continued escalation.

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Yes ≈ 71% chance

✨ Bitcoin has only five days left in July to spike above $67,500, and despite a slight uptick from Japan ETF optimism, the probability remains low after a week of decline, reflecting skepticism that a sudden surge will occur.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

✨ Despite only two viable candidates, the 77% odds on Alibaba reflect a regulatory edge: Beijing's potential export curbs on AI models (Reuters, Jul 9) likely favor the deep-pocketed incumbent over the challenger Moonshot.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Yes ≈ 52% chance