Learn
New to prediction markets? Start here. Short, neutral explainers — no jargon, no trading required.
What is a prediction market?A plain-language intro: markets where the price of an outcome IS the crowd's estimate of its probability.How to read the oddsCents are percentages. A 30-second guide to turning a price into a plain-English chance — and its limits.Are prediction-market odds actually accurate?Often more accurate than pundits or polls — here's the evidence, and the calibration to expect.How prediction markets are regulated (US)In the US, event contracts are federally regulated derivatives overseen by the CFTC — not the Wild West.Why do different venues disagree?Same question, different prices: the gap comes from audience, liquidity, fees and contract wording.A field guide to the venuesPolymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt and more — who they are, what money they use, how they're run.Under the hood: order books, AMMs & market makersTwo ways a market sets its price — matching buyers and sellers, or a formula that always quotes.How markets resolveThe #1 beginner gotcha: a market settles under its own rules, which can lag what looks decided on TV.Where the truth comes from: oracles & settlementAfter the event, something has to declare the winner. That “something” is the oracle — and the rules differ.When to distrust the oddsPrices are a strong signal, not gospel. The handful of situations where they go wrong.A plain-English glossaryThe terms you'll see across every venue, defined once, in everyday language.