The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about a 4% chance of an Ebola pandemic in 2026, with the small difference between venues likely due to Polymarket using real money and Manifold using play money.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
Tap a venue to show/hide its line
Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.