The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about a 37% chance that the U.S. will see at least 4000 measles cases in 2026. The slight difference between the two venues (35% vs. 39%) may reflect different trader audiences or liquidity levels.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.