Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

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Across venues

· updated 6mPredictPal Consensus

10%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

The prediction markets collectively imply a 10% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027, with no notable disagreement between the two venues.

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

How each venue’s Yes has moved

AI overview· Updated 4h ago

The market heavily favors regime survival through 2027 despite a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, because the regime continues to demonstrate internal control and diplomatic flexibility even as external threats and dissident executions mount.

📊 Base rate: Over the past 50 years, the average annual probability of an authoritarian regime collapsing is roughly 2–3%, making the 1.5-year baseline around 3–5%; the current 10% Yes price is elevated above that historical norm.

What's driving it

• Iran’s execution of protester Mehdi Khanaki (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22) signals the regime’s willingness to crack down hard on dissent, reinforcing expectations of stability.
• Iranian strikes on a Jordan air base that killed three US troops (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22) and Trump’s threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22) have increased conflict but not yet threatened regime survival, keeping No odds high.
• Iran’s effort to seek mediation in Pakistan after the US interim deal collapse (Crypto Briefing, Jul 21) shows it is still pursuing diplomatic off-ramps, reducing the risk of a war that could trigger collapse.
• Airstrikes on Ilam and Baneh provinces (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22) are limited in scope and have not triggered widespread internal uprising, supporting the No case.

The case for YES

• Escalating military conflict—Trump’s threat of infrastructure destruction and the killing of US troops—could push the US toward a regime-change operation if diplomatic channels fail.
• The execution of a protester amid ongoing dissent may spark larger protests if opposition groups rally, potentially creating a unified challenge to the regime.
• The Kuwaiti cleric’s prediction of regime collapse (MEMRI, Jul 21), while not a reliable indicator, reflects a regional sentiment that could undermine the regime’s legitimacy and encourage defections.

The case for NO

• The regime has survived four decades of war, sanctions, and popular uprisings, demonstrating a high capacity for adaptive repression.
• Immediate crackdowns (execution of Mehdi Khanaki) and ongoing airstrikes show the regime still commands its security forces and can target dissidents.
• Iran’s active mediation efforts after the US deal collapse indicate it retains foreign-policy options and is not diplomatically isolated, reducing the risk of a sudden collapse.

What to watch

• US midterm elections in November 2026: if a hawkish majority emerges, increased pressure on Iran would likely raise Yes odds.
• A new wave of mass protests following the execution of Mehdi Khanaki, especially if death toll rises, could increase Yes odds.
• Any announcement of resumed nuclear negotiations or a temporary de-escalation deal would likely lower Yes odds as war risk recedes.

Sources

🔗 cryptobriefing.com 🔗 memri.org

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.