KalshiPoliticsOpenUpdated Jul 8, 2026
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
3 markets · 11mo
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Kalshi
Open
Will Samuel Alito be out as before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027
Yes39¢
No61¢
Yes ≈ 39% chance
$25.7K Vol 0pts11mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
The market heavily discounts an Alito retirement before 2027 after a high-profile NPR retraction of a false retirement story, but Senate GOP planning for a potential vacancy suggests the possibility is not entirely off the table.
Yes8¢
No92¢
Yes ≈ 8% chance
$262K Vol 0pts5mo
Kalshi
Open
Will Samuel Alito retires the Supreme Court in before September? — Before Sep 1, 2026
A false alarm in late June—when NPR briefly reported Alito's retirement and then retracted—cemented the market's near-certain view that he will not step down before September, leaving the 2% Yes odds as a residual tail risk rather than a reflection of any real signal.
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$327K Vol 0pts1mo
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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