Who will be arrested in 2026?

What's driving it

• • The consistently high 'No' odds for Obama, Clinton, and others suggest traders see no credible legal threat from the current DOJ or state prosecutors, as no major investigation targeting these figures has been publicly confirmed (no clear catalyst in headlines).
• • John Brennan's near-50% odds likely reflect lingering uncertainty from past political controversies and his role in intelligence matters, but no recent headline has provided a concrete new legal development to push the market decisively.
• • The wide gap between Brennan and figures like Fauci or Schiff indicates traders differentiate based on perceived exposure to ongoing investigations or political vendettas, though no specific new charges have been filed.

What to watch

• • Any announcement of a grand jury investigation or subpoena targeting one of these figures would sharply increase 'Yes' odds for that individual (likely direction: up for Yes).
• • A major political event, such as a change in control of Congress or the presidency in 2028, could alter prosecutorial priorities, but no such event is scheduled before 2027 (likely direction: uncertain).
• • A public statement from a current prosecutor or DOJ official hinting at an active probe would move markets, but no such statement is expected on a fixed date.