Which bills will become law in 2026?

What's driving it

• • The sole high-probability bill, Housing for the 21st Century Act at 98%, likely reflects that it is a narrow, bipartisan housing provision already cleared in committee or attached to a must-pass vehicle, though no explicit headline was provided to confirm this.
• • The FISA Section 702 reauthorization (No 86%) shows markets betting against a clean, long-term extension amid partisan fights over warrant requirements, even though a short-term patch is possible; no headline explains the 2-year framing.
• • The uniform rejection of novelty bills (Trump Airport, Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act, $2.50 Coin, SHOWER Act, Trump's Birthday) at odds of 88%–98% No suggests traders see them as unserious, low-priority proposals with no clear path through committee or floor time.

What to watch

• • September 2026 fiscal year-end deadline: if a must-pass omnibus or continuing resolution emerges, low-odds bills could hitch a ride (likely direction: narrowing odds for attached bills, or kills them if excluded).
• • Floor action or markup in the House Judiciary Committee on FISA reform (no specific date given): a bipartisan agreement would spike FISA reauthorization odds sharply (likely direction: Yes).
• • Any sponsor or leadership announcement attaching a low-odds bill to a major defense or spending package (e.g., December 2026 lame-duck session) would dramatically increase its passage probability (likely direction: Yes for that bill).