Brent crude oil price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Yes ≈ 45% chance

✨ The market heavily favors No because progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks has driven oil prices down, but the 24-day window leaves room for a sharp reversal if diplomacy stalls or supply disruptions emerge.

Yes ≈ 60% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a sustained oil price rally above $85 despite the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire, implying traders view the recent geopolitical spike as temporary and expect a mean-reverting close.

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Yes ≈ 98% chance

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance