US Dollar Index move on July FOMC day?
10 markets · 1d
The market prices a high chance of a modest DXY move (0.2-0.6%) on July FOMC day, but sees a low probability of a large swing (>1.2%), implying expectations of a non-disruptive Fed decision.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%? — At least 0.40%
Yes ≈ 74% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%? — At least 0.80%
Yes ≈ 47% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 2.00%? — At least 2.00%
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.80%? — At least 1.80%
The market heavily discounts a 1.8% daily swing in the dollar index by late July 2026, reflecting a view that such large moves are rare outside of major shocks, but the odds may be mispriced if a key data release or policy surprise occurs.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.60%? — At least 1.60%
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.40%? — At least 1.40%
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.20%? — At least 1.20%
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%? — At least 1.00%
The market implies a 36% chance of a 1% daily move in the dollar index, which is above the historical base rate of roughly 10–15%, suggesting traders are pricing in elevated uncertainty or a specific event risk despite no clear recent catalyst.
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%? — At least 0.60%
The market is pricing a 62% chance of a 0.60% daily swing in the dollar index on July 29, 2026, which is high relative to typical daily moves, but no recent headlines explain the elevated odds, suggesting the price may reflect positioning or algorithmic activity rather than a fundamental catalyst.
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%? — At least 0.20%
Traders are overwhelmingly confident the Dollar Index will move at least 0.20% on July 29, but without recent headlines, the reason for this confidence is unclear.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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