Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
11 markets · 3d
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.25%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.00%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.75%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.50%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.25%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00%
The market is pricing near-zero probability of a rate above 4% on July 29, despite some upside inflation risk, because the Fed's last signal in June suggested only potential future hikes, not an imminent move, and the current rate upper bound is already below 4%.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.75%
The market heavily favors rates staying at or below 3.75% after the July 29 meeting, but the real story is that the Fed's new chair Kevin Warsh has signaled potential hikes amid persistent inflation, creating a tail risk that the odds currently underprice.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.50%
The market is pricing in near-certainty that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate above 3.50% after the July 29 meeting, driven by persistent inflation concerns and a hawkish shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.25%
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.00%
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 2.75%
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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