Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Yes ≈ 61% chance

✨ United Torah Judaism's odds lag below 50% due to internal Haredi fragmentation and backlash against religious legislation, even though the party remains a traditional coalition kingmaker for right-wing blocs.

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Yes ≈ 58% chance

✨ Shas's odds of joining the next government are low because its spiritual leader is openly signaling a break with Netanyahu and exploring a centrist alliance, while the party's aggressive anti-court rhetoric may alienate potential coalition partners.

Yes ≈ 39% chance

✨ The Religious Zionist Party's path to government hinges on whether Benjamin Netanyahu can reverse his coalition's slide to 48 seats, as a leftward shift in Israeli politics and Eisenkot's rising popularity make a right-wing coalition less likely.

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Yes ≈ 34% chance

✨ Noam's odds are low because the party has never been in government and faces a narrow path: it must be included in a coalition led by a weakened Likud, but the rise of anti-Netanyahu blocs and potential Arab party involvement could shut it out entirely.

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance