South Dakota Senate margin of victory

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The market heavily favors a Republican blowout in South Dakota's Senate race, but the national headwinds from Trump's sinking approval and unpopular policies suggest the margin could tighten, making the 68% odds for a 23-point win look aggressive.

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Yes ≈ 85% chance