Nebraska 01 House General Election: voter turnout
5 markets · 1y
The market clusters turnout between 230,000 and 240,000, with strong confidence it will exceed 230K but only a slight edge it will stay below 240K, implying a moderately contested race rather than a low-turnout or landslide scenario.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will the total vote count for all participants in Nebraska 01 House General Election be above 280000? — Above 280K
The odds heavily favor No at 90%, but the threshold of 280,000 votes is not extreme for a competitive House race in a midterm; the lack of any election-related headlines suggests the market is driven by historical turnout patterns rather than current events.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Will the total vote count for all participants in Nebraska 01 House General Election be above 270000? — Above 270K
The market strongly expects Nebraska's 1st District total votes to stay below 270,000 in the 2026 House general election, likely reflecting a base-rate expectation of midterm turnout in a district that has hovered near that threshold in recent cycles.
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Will the total vote count for all participants in Nebraska 01 House General Election be above 230000? — Above 230K
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Will the total vote count for all participants in Nebraska 01 House General Election be above 240000? — Above 240K
The 49% probability implies a near-coin flip on whether Nebraska's 1st District midterm turnout surpasses 240,000—above the 2022 level of ~218,000 but far below the presidential-year peak—with no recent local news or polling in the provided headlines to explain the odds.
Yes ≈ 49% chance
Will the total vote count for all participants in Nebraska 01 House General Election be above 260000? — Above 260K
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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