When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
6 markets · 5mo
The market is heavily skeptical of any New Glenn launch in 2026, with the highest probability (22%) assigned to a launch before 2027, reflecting repeated delays and no confirmed launch date from Blue Origin.
📊 Base rate: The first launch of Blue Origin's New Glenn was originally planned for 2021 and has been postponed multiple times, making a 2026 launch uncertain given the typical development timeline for a new heavy-lift rocket.
What's driving it
- • No specific recent headlines provided; the odds reflect a pattern of repeated delays and a lack of a confirmed launch date from Blue Origin.
- • The highest probability (22% for before 2027) suggests the market sees a slim chance of a launch within the next 5 months, likely due to the absence of recent test milestones.
- • The near-uniform pessimism across all 2026 thresholds (99% No for August, September, October) indicates that traders expect the delays to extend well into 2027 or beyond.
The bullish case
- • No recent headlines provide a specific Yes case; arguments would rely on Blue Origin's history of completing hardware and statements about a launch attempt in late 2026.
- • If the vehicle passes a static fire test and receives an FAA license in the coming weeks, a launch before 2027 becomes more plausible.
- • The rocket's engines have been tested separately, and the first stage has been assembled, suggesting that a launch attempt could occur if integration and testing proceed smoothly.
The bearish case
- • No recent headlines directly support this case; the dominant No view is driven by Blue Origin's pattern of missing previous target dates (originally 2021, then 2024, 2025).
- • The lack of a publicly announced launch date from Blue Origin, combined with the complex integration of the BE-4 engines and the new launch pad, points to further delays.
- • The market's near‑certainty that a launch will not occur before December (91% No) suggests traders expect major remaining milestones, such as a full wet dress rehearsal, to push the timeline into 2027.
What to watch
- • Blue Origin's announcement of a specific launch date or window: if it falls in 2026, the probability of a 2026 launch would increase significantly.
- • A successful static fire test of the fully stacked New Glenn: this would signal readiness and likely raise the odds of a launch before 2027.
- • Issuance of an FAA launch license: this is a regulatory prerequisite and its timing would directly affect the market's outlook for a 2026 launch.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Jan 2027? — Before 2027
Blue Origin's New Glenn launch before 2027 is a long shot (21% Yes) because the company is still rebuilding its launchpad after an explosion and targeting a December 2026 return, leaving a razor-thin schedule with no margin for delays.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Dec 2026? — Before December
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Nov 2026? — Before November
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Sep 2026? — Before September
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Oct 2026? — Before October
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Aug 2026? — Before August
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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