Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?
13 markets · 12d
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Will above 90000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 90,000
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Will above 80000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 80,000
The market assigns a 42% probability to July 2026 adding over 80,000 jobs, a level historically met in most months, suggesting traders are pricing in a meaningful slowdown or a specific downside risk that is not immediately visible in headlines.
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Will above 70000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 70,000
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Will above 60000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 60,000
The market is pricing a 70% chance that July payrolls rebound above 60k after June's weak 57k print, which sent gold surging above $4,100 and cooled rate-hike fears. The key question is whether June was a one-off noise or the start of a softening trend.
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Will above 50000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 50,000
Yes ≈ 71% chance
Will above 40000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 40,000
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Will above 30000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 30,000
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Will above -25000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above -25,000
The market is pricing near-certainty that July payrolls will not fall by more than 25,000, a threshold so low it has been breached only during the COVID lockdowns in the last decade; the real story is not whether jobs will be added but how far above -25k the number lands.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Will above 20000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 20,000
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Will above 125000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 125,000
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Will above 100000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 100,000
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Will above 10000 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 10,000
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Will above 0 jobs be added in July 2026? — Above 0
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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