New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Yes ≈ 51% chance

✨ Sununu's Qatar/Epstein controversy is the key variable: it could erode his dominant position and shrink his margin, but his strong name recognition and fundraising still make a >30% win plausible.

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Yes ≈ 97% chance