When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?
6 markets · 1mo
The House's ability to pass a reconciliation bill is deeply uncertain, with markets heavily discounting passage before August but gradually pricing in a rising chance through year-end, reflecting deep partisan divisions and procedural hurdles rather than a clear path to consensus. The odds imply a slow-burn negotiation where failure is the baseline, but a late-year deal remains possible if leadership can bridge internal GOP fractures.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Despite the House overcoming a key hurdle and racing to pass reconciliation before recess, the odds remain low because the August break is imminent and the stopgap funding bill reduces the immediate pressure to finish the complex bill.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Aug 1, 2026
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2026
The House passed its own budget blueprint, but the Senate lacks the votes for its version, leaving reconciliation in limbo and making a final bill unlikely before the October 1 deadline.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before January 01, 2027? — Before Nov 1, 2026
With the August recess days away, House Republicans are racing to pass a reconciliation bill alongside a stopgap funding bill, but the market's 25% odds reflect deep skepticism that they can clear both chambers and resolve internal divisions before the November 1 deadline.
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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