Who will run for South Carolina Senate?

✨ After losing the GOP gubernatorial nomination, Pamela Evette has publicly praised incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham, signaling she is unlikely to challenge him for the Class 2 Senate seat, causing a sharp drop in odds.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

✨ Lindsey Graham's sudden death created an open Senate seat, but Nikki Haley's odds remain at 3% because she has shown no interest and is instead focused on foreign policy and national security, making a last-minute announcement before the Aug 11 deadline highly unlikely.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ McMaster's appointment of the late senator's sister to fill the seat effectively signals he is not running, and her potential candidacy for a full term further cements the low odds.

Yes ≈ 96% chance

✨ Sen. Lindsey Graham's sudden death and his widow Darline Graham's potential entry have reshaped the race, slashing Mace's odds to 21% as traders price in a tougher primary path and her lack of key endorsements, not just her own decision timeline.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance

✨ Fry's odds of announcing a Senate run collapsed 45 points in 24 hours, likely because reports of potential successors for his House seat signal that insiders expect him to stay put, despite Trump's endorsement and front-runner status.

Yes ≈ 99% chance

✨ Despite a high-profile recruitment push from Senator Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy's odds remain near zero because he has consistently declined to run for office since leaving Congress in 2019, and the filing deadline is less than a month away with no indication of a change of heart.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ Scott Bessent has publicly and unequivocally ruled out a Senate run, and the market reflects near-certainty that he will not enter the race before the August 11 deadline, despite his elevated national profile from Treasury service.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 99% chance