What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?

✨ Despite active US diplomacy with India, Armenia, and Ukraine, there is no public signal of a Russia visit, and the 11% odds reflect the sustained break in high-level travel since 2022.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

✨ The odds lean No (60%) because no confirmed trip to Switzerland has been announced, even though the Secretary of State has publicly stated that Iran technical talks could resume there soon; the market is pricing in skepticism that those talks will actually materialize into a visit before 2027.

Yes ≈ 47% chance

✨ The market reflects persistent uncertainty over whether Secretary Rubio will make a previously planned trip to Qatar, with the odds stuck near even after months of conflicting signals about US-Qatar relations and no clear confirmation of a visit.

Yes ≈ 50% chance

✨ The odds heavily favor no visit because the Secretary of State is not scheduled to stop in Oman during his ongoing Gulf tour, and the main Iran deal negotiations are instead being held in Qatar and Switzerland.

Yes ≈ 25% chance

✨ The market is essentially a coin flip because the 2025 Rubio visit appears excluded from the resolution window, leaving the current Secretary of State's travel plans uncertain amid competing signals of security cooperation and diplomatic friction.

Yes ≈ 44% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a Secretary of State visit to Ukraine before 2027, likely because the current Secretary, Rubio, has focused on other diplomatic venues and peace-process locations outside Ukraine, while the most recent high-level U.S. visit to Kyiv was by the Army Secretary, not the Secretary of State.

Yes ≈ 25% chance

✨ The low probability of a Secretary of State visit to Poland reflects diplomatic signals that the current U.S. administration is focusing on other European allies and repair work with the Vatican, despite recent high-level NATO tensions with Russia.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

✨ Despite a May 2026 offer of a new relationship from Secretary Rubio, the market heavily discounts a visit before 2027, likely because recent military tensions and public accusations have soured the diplomatic climate.

Yes ≈ 27% chance

✨ Despite increased US-Venezuela economic engagement under Rubio, no headline mentions a planned Secretary of State visit, and the odds correctly reflect the absence of concrete diplomatic steps toward a personal trip before 2027.

Yes ≈ 12% chance