KalshiPoliticsOpenUpdated Jul 8, 2026
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?
6 markets · 5mo
AI overview
The reconciliation bill's Senate passage is heavily discounted across all timeframes, with odds of passage before any given date never exceeding 27%, reflecting deep skepticism that the current Congress can overcome internal party divisions and procedural hurdles before the end of the year.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Kalshi
Open
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026
Yes16¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 16% chance
$947 Vol2mo
Kalshi
Open
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$312 Vol1mo
Kalshi
Open
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026
Yes42¢
No58¢
Yes ≈ 42% chance
$752 Vol3mo
Kalshi
Open
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Dec 1, 2026? — Before Dec 1, 2026
Yes19¢
No81¢
Yes ≈ 19% chance
$372 Vol4mo
Kalshi
Open
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$2.3K Vol5d
Kalshi
Open
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027
Yes57¢
No43¢
Yes ≈ 57% chance
$800 Vol5mo
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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