How low will SOL get in July?
8 markets · 5d
The market is heavily pricing in that Solana will stay above $70 for the rest of July, with near-certain odds against any drop below $50, reflecting a strong belief in price stability or a mild recovery despite recent crypto volatility.
📊 Base rate: In the past five Julys, Solana has only once closed below $70 (July 2022, during a broader crypto winter), giving a historical prior of roughly 20% for such a low, which makes the current 81% No on below $70 appear moderately confident but not extreme.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst in provided headlines explains the high No odds across all markets, suggesting the odds are driven by a general lack of bearish news and a market consensus that Solana has found a floor above $70.
- • The steep drop-off in odds from below $70 (81% No) to below $65 (96% No) implies traders see a very low probability of a sharp decline, likely due to recent price stability or support from network activity.
- • The near-unanimous No on below $50 (98% No) and below $45 (99% No) indicates that extreme downside scenarios are considered highly unlikely within the remaining days of July.
The bullish case
- • A sudden negative regulatory action or security incident could trigger a panic sell-off, pushing Solana below $70 before month-end.
- • A broader crypto market crash, such as a flash crash or a major exchange hack, could drag Solana down with it, making the below-$70 outcome possible.
- • If Solana is currently trading near $70, a small negative move of a few percent could breach that threshold, especially if liquidity is thin in late July.
The bearish case
- • Solana has shown resilience in recent weeks, with no major bearish headlines, and the market expects it to maintain its current range above $70.
- • The high No odds on deeper levels (below $50) suggest that even if a dip occurs, it is unlikely to be severe, limiting the chance of a cascade below $70.
- • Positive network developments or broader market stability in the final days of July would reinforce the current price floor, keeping Solana above $70.
What to watch
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 26: a hawkish surprise could pressure risk assets like Solana, increasing the chance of a drop below $70.
- • Solana network upgrade or outage report in the last week of July: a technical issue could trigger a sell-off, while a successful upgrade could support prices.
- • Major exchange listing or delisting announcement for SOL before July 31: a delisting would likely push prices down, while a new listing could provide a boost.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $70.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $70.00
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $65.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $65.00
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $60.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $60.00
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $55.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $55.00
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $50.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $50.00
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $45.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $45.00
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $40.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $40.00
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will SOL trimmed mean be below $35.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026? — Below $35.00
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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