What countries will Trump visit in 2026?

What's driving it

• • Turkey's 97% Yes reflects Trump's past positive relationship with Erdogan and no recent headlines indicating a rupture, making a visit plausible for geopolitical talks.
• • Cuba's 89% No and Venezuela's 87% No align with Trump's hardline stance on socialist regimes, reinforced by his 2025 campaign rhetoric against normalization.
• • Israel's 74% No is surprising given Trump's pro-Israel record, but may stem from his ongoing legal battles and strained relations with Netanyahu's government over judicial reforms (Reuters, Mar 2026).
• • Taiwan's 94% No and Japan's 69% No suggest markets see Trump avoiding East Asia due to potential China backlash and his focus on domestic issues.

What to watch

• • Trump's court schedule in Q1 2026 (e.g., a trial date set for Feb 2026) could clarify travel feasibility; a restrictive ruling would push all No odds higher.
• • A major diplomatic incident involving Turkey (e.g., a NATO dispute) before mid-2026 could lower the Yes odds from 97%.
• • The 2026 US midterm elections campaign season starting in mid-2026 might incentivize Trump to visit Israel or Saudi Arabia for fundraising, raising those odds.