Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ The market heavily favors Maduro remaining head of state despite his capture and U.S. court appearance, suggesting traders see the Venezuelan government structure and political inertia as outweighing the extraordinary event of his extradition.

Yes ≈ 78% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts Marco Rubio becoming Venezuela's head of state by year-end 2026, reflecting both his lack of a clear path to power there and his current focus on foreign policy roles, not Venezuelan leadership.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ Despite international attention and her stated plans to run again, Machado faces a formidable barrier: she is currently blocked from returning to Venezuela, and the regime's control remains intact. The market's 6% Yes odds reflect a deeply entrenched status quo, not just a polling gap.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

✨ Despite Maduro's ouster and Machado's endorsement, Edmundo González remains in Spanish exile and on the sidelines, making his return to power by year-end extremely unlikely at current odds of 2%.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

✨ Delcy Rodríguez is the de facto leader after a devastating earthquake, but her hold on power is fragile amid a humanitarian crisis and the looming return of opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, making a permanent transition to head of state by year-end unlikely.

Yes ≈ 16% chance

✨ The market reflects a near-zero probability that Donald Trump becomes Venezuela's head of state, with no headline or event suggesting a plausible mechanism—the only story is the absence of any credible path.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance