CO-01 Democratic primary: Diana DeGette vote percent
7 markets · 11mo
These markets suggest a tight floor and ceiling for Diana DeGette's primary vote share, with near-certainty she will win 30-39% but virtually no chance of hitting 40% or above, implying a primary where DeGette is a strong incumbent but the field may consolidate against her.
📊 Base rate: Incumbent Democratic representatives in safe CO-01 primaries have historically won over 60% in competitive primaries, but uncontested incumbents often exceed 70%; the current odds of 30-39% are unusually low, suggesting an exceptionally crowded or strong challenger field.
What's driving it
- • The near-certainty of at least 30% and near-zero chance of at least 40% (Jul 23 odds) point to a hard ceiling around 35-39%, likely due to multiple credible challengers splitting the remaining vote.
- • The gap between 35% (Yes at 99%) and 40% (No at 99%) is extremely narrow, implying traders see a tightly clustered field with DeGette barely clearing a third of the vote.
- • No provided headline explains the sharp drop-off above 35%, suggesting the market is pricing in either a recent poll or a specific challenger surge not reflected in available headlines.
The bullish case
- • DeGette's incumbency and long tenure since 1997 provide name recognition and institutional support, even in a crowded field.
- • The market assigns near-100% probability to her exceeding 35%, indicating traders see a strong floor from her core supporters.
The bearish case
- • The sub-40% ceiling is extreme for an incumbent, suggesting heavy vote-splitting with multiple well-funded challengers or a single strong progressive rival.
- • Denver's progressive shift could hurt DeGette (a moderate) if primary voters coalesce around a left-wing alternative, keeping her share below 40%.
- • The 1% chance of reaching 40% implies traders believe DeGette's maximum realistic share is 35-39%, with no path to higher turnout.
What to watch
- • Next quarterly FEC filing (due Jul 31, 2026): will reveal challenger fundraising, likely confirming or shifting the ceiling estimate.
- • Denver Post endorsement (expected Aug 2026): a major local endorsement could boost a challenger, further depressing DeGette's vote share.
- • Labor union endorsements (various, Aug 2026): could consolidate progressive support against DeGette, narrowing her path to 35%+.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 60%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 55% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 55%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 50%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 45%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 40%
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 35%
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will Diana DeGette receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-01 Democratic primary? — At least 30%
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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