Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)
7 markets · 11mo
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Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 6%
The market heavily favors Sullivan clearing 6% despite a name-confusion threat from a same-named GOP candidate, but his weak fundraising and the risk of vote-splitting among conservative voters keep the Yes side alive at low odds.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 4%
The market heavily favors the incumbent getting under 4% of the primary vote, a near-impossible outcome under normal circumstances, driven entirely by the unique threat of a same-name challenger splitting the Republican base and potentially confusing voters into backing the wrong Dan Sullivan.
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 2%
Yes ≈ 60% chance
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 5%
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 3%
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 0.1%
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary? — At least 1%
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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