KalshiPoliticsOpenUpdated Apr 16, 2026
2028 Democratic VP nominee
45 markets · 2y
AI overview· Updated 4d ago
The market is heavily betting against all eight named candidates, implying the eventual Democratic VP pick will be a relatively obscure figure or someone not yet in the national conversation.
📊 Base rate: Since 1972, only one sitting U.S. House member (Sargent Shriver) has been a major-party vice presidential nominee, making the high 'No' odds for House members like Ocasio-Cortez and Talarico consistent with historical precedent.
What's driving it
- • All eight candidates have 'No' odds above 90%, reflecting a market consensus that the VP nominee will not be any of these well-known figures (stated odds).
- • The lack of a clear frontrunner among the listed names suggests traders are pricing in a wide field of potential dark horses (inference from uniform odds).
- • No recent headlines or events have shifted these odds, indicating the market is driven by long-term expectations rather than breaking news (no provided headlines).
The bullish case
- • A candidate like Gretchen Whitmer could be chosen if the presidential nominee seeks a Midwestern swing-state governor to balance the ticket.
- • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might be selected to energize the progressive base, similar to the choice of Kamala Harris in 2020.
- • Pete Buttigieg's high name recognition and experience could make him a safe pick for a nominee wanting a tested communicator.
The bearish case
- • The market's high 'No' odds suggest that the eventual VP pick will be a less nationally prominent figure, such as a senator or governor from a battleground state not on this list.
- • Historically, vice presidential nominees are often chosen from outside the pool of early speculation, as seen with Sarah Palin in 2008 or Tim Kaine in 2016.
- • The Democratic primary process may elevate a presidential candidate who then selects a running mate from their own state or region, bypassing these national names.
What to watch
- • 2026 midterm elections (November 2026) - strong performances by Democratic governors or senators could boost their VP prospects, potentially lowering 'No' odds for some.
- • First Democratic primary debate (likely early 2027) - the emergence of a presidential frontrunner will clarify the VP selection criteria and may shift odds for specific candidates.
- • 2028 Democratic National Convention (summer 2028) - the actual VP announcement will resolve the market, but before that, speculation and vetting news could cause movements.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Kalshi
Open
Will Phil Murphy be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$50 Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Lebron James be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$2 Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Liz Cheney be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$2.4K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Hunter Biden be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$82.6K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Andrew Yang be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$1K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Jared Polis be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$94 Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Gina Raimondo be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$26.4K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Beto O'Rourke be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$794 Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Barack Obama be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$593 Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Amy Klobuchar be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$39.6K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Jamie Dimon be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$6.1K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Chris Murphy be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$18.7K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Cory Booker be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$7.3K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Jon Stewart be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$26.8K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Ro Khanna be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$90.4K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Rahm Emanuel be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$25.3K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Tony Evers be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$6K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes6¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 6% chance
$126K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes5¢
No95¢
Yes ≈ 5% chance
$59.7K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Ruben Gallego be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes3¢
No97¢
Yes ≈ 3% chance
$56.2K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Tim Walz be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$57.8K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Roy Cooper be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$59.3K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Mark Cuban be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes0¢
No100¢
Yes ≈ 0% chance
$25.6K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will J.B. Pritzker be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes2¢
No98¢
Yes ≈ 2% chance
$62.9K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Wes Moore be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes5¢
No95¢
Yes ≈ 5% chance
$51.3K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Kamala Harris be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes1¢
No99¢
Yes ≈ 1% chance
$133K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
$73.1K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$132K Vol2y
Kalshi
Open
Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Yes7¢
No93¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$143K Vol2y
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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