Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

What's driving it

• • Tom Aspinall's 53% 'Yes' odds are driven by his status as the interim champion and the expectation he will face Jon Jones for the undisputed title, a fight that has been heavily rumored but not officially booked (no clear catalyst recently).
• • The near-unanimous 98-100% 'No' odds on every other contender (e.g., Volkov, Lewis, Tybura) imply the market sees Aspinall as the only viable path to a new champion, with all other fighters viewed as extreme long shots to win the belt by year-end.
• • Ciryl Gane's 54% 'No' odds suggest the market sees him as the second-most likely contender, but still unlikely, possibly due to his previous loss to Jones and the crowded contender queue.

What to watch

• • Official announcement of Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall for the UFC Heavyweight title (likely direction: Aspinall 'Yes' odds rise to 60-70% if the fight is confirmed).
• • Jon Jones announces a fight against a non-Aspinall opponent (e.g., Stipe Miocic) or retirement (likely direction: Aspinall 'Yes' odds drop below 40%).
• • Tom Aspinall suffers a loss or injury in a scheduled fight (likely direction: Aspinall 'Yes' odds collapse to 10-20%, and a new favorite emerges among the 'No' contenders).