Venezuela leader end of 2026?
57 markets · 5mo
This event asks whether Nicolás Maduro will still be Venezuela's leader at the end of 2026. The market heavily favors Maduro (81% Yes), while all alternatives are given near-zero probability. The outcome hinges on Maduro's ability to maintain power amid domestic instability, international pressure, and opposition fragmentation.
The case for YES
- • Maduro retains tight control over state institutions and the military, with opposition challenges consistently suppressed, supporting his continued hold on power. Current odds at 81% reflect a strong market consensus that he will endure through end of 2026.
- • Recent headlines show no credible near-term threat to Maduro's rule; opposition coalitions remain fractured and internationally unrecognized in Venezuela's domestic power structure.
The case for NO
- • Long odds for all alternatives (97-100% No) suggest the market views each specific challenger as extremely unlikely to replace Maduro, but a generic change could still happen if conditions shift suddenly.
- • Deepening economic crisis, sanctions, or a military split could trigger an unanticipated leadership transition before 2026, though market prices imply such scenarios are currently perceived as improbable.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 1 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 2 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 3 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 4 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 5 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 6 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 7 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 8 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 9 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 10 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 11 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 12 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 13 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 14 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 15 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 16 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 17 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 18 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 19 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 20 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 21 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 22 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 23 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 24 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 25 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 26 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 27 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 28 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 29 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 30 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 31 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 32 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 33 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 34 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 35 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 36 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 37 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 38 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 39 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will Leader 40 be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…