Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

What's driving it

• • No specific recent headlines are provided; the 55% Yes odds for United Russia represent a marked drop from its historical lock on the top seat, suggesting real uncertainty about its ability to replicate past results.
• • All other parties carry extremely high No odds (96-100%), with 'Other' at 0% Yes, showing the market sees no individual challenger as plausible and treats the outcome as nearly binary on United Russia versus a disorganized field.

What to watch

• • The official campaign registration window (typically late July–August 2026) will determine which parties field candidates and may reveal unexpected alliances or disqualifications.
• • Any major polling shift or public statement from the Kremlin about the election's importance could move the odds.
• • The election itself (expected September 2026) is the ultimate catalyst, with final polls and early results directly settling the market.