Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?
4 markets · 5mo
Markets have already resolved that Pezeshkian remained in office through mid-2026, and now assign only a 16% chance he leaves by year-end, suggesting confidence in his survival despite potential political pressures.
📊 Base rate: Since the Islamic Republic's founding in 1979, only one Iranian president (Abolhassan Banisadr in 1981) has been removed before completing a full term, making the current 16% chance of removal by end of 2026 appear relatively high compared to historical precedent.
What's driving it
- • The market's 100% 'No' resolution for past dates (March 31, April 30, June 30) confirms Pezeshkian has not been removed through mid-2026, establishing a track record of survival.
- • The 84% 'No' for December 31 implies traders see low probability of a sudden ouster in the second half of 2026, likely due to perceived political stability.
- • No clear catalyst has been reported recently; the odds reflect the market's assessment that Pezeshkian has remained in office past mid-2026 and is likely to finish the year.
The bullish case
- • A severe economic crisis or mass protests could erode Pezeshkian's support and prompt the Supreme Leader to replace him.
- • A power struggle with hardliners in the parliament or judiciary might lead to impeachment proceedings.
- • Health issues or resignation due to personal reasons could also result in him being 'out' before year-end.
The bearish case
- • Historical precedent shows Iranian presidents rarely leave office early; the last removal was over 40 years ago.
- • Pezeshkian likely retains the backing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which is crucial for survival in Iran's political system.
- • The absence of any major political crisis or public unrest so far in 2026 suggests he will complete the year.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of a no-confidence vote or impeachment motion in the Iranian parliament would sharply increase the probability of 'Yes'.
- • A sudden resignation or death of Pezeshkian would immediately resolve the market to 'Yes'.
- • No specific upcoming events are identified; the market will likely move on unexpected political developments.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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