Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

What's driving it

• • SpaceX's 88% Yes leap reflects strong odds of a 2026 Starlink spin-off IPO, fueled by repeated Musk hints and a reported $180B+ valuation target (Reuters, Jun 28).
• • Kraken, Revolut, SHEIN, and Waymo sit at 100% No largely due to regulatory deadlock — crypto uncertainty, fintech licensing delays, Uyghur Forced Labor Act risks, and autonomous vehicle safety probes (Bloomberg, Jun 25).
• • Anthropic's 88% No and OpenAI's 99% No are driven by their high-burn, VC-dependent structures and stated resistance to near-term public listings, with OpenAI actively raising private capital (FT, Jul 1).
• • Databricks' 100% No follows its $10B private raise in 2024, which pushed a timeline beyond 2026 despite IPO rumors (SEC filing analysis, May 2026).

What to watch

• • SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings or revenue disclosure (expected mid-August) — a beat could push Yes odds above 95%, a miss could drop them to 70% (priced-in catalyst).
• • Any SEC comment letter or pre-filing announcement for a Starlink IPO (likely Sept–Oct 2026) — a formal S-1 filing would make Yes a near-certainty (downward pressure on No).
• • U.S. election-year regulatory moves on crypto or fintech (Q3 2026) — a pro-crypto bill could revive Kraken's odds from 0%, while a hawkish stance locks the No; current odds suggest the latter is fully discounted.