PolymarketPoliticsOpenUpdated 16m ago

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

11 markets · 2mo

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Markets in this event

Polymarket

Open

Lula da Silva <5%

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$17.1K Vol 1pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Lula da Silva 5-10%

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

$14.5K Vol 2pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Lula da Silva 10-15%

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

$18.4K Vol 1pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Lula da Silva 15%+

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$10.7K Vol 1pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$8.1K Vol 1pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$4.1K Vol 1pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$3.8K Vol 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Renan Santos Victory

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$210K Vol 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

Yes1¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2.7K Vol2mo

Polymarket

Open

Ratinho Júnior Victory

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$3.2K Vol2mo

Polymarket

Open

Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Other

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$4K Vol2mo

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