Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

✨ The market heavily discounts a retirement announcement by September 30, 2026, despite a high-profile false alarm in July 2026 that briefly suggested Alito might step down, because the retracted NPR story and Alito's lack of any subsequent signal have reinforced the baseline expectation that he will stay on the bench.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ The market is pricing a zero percent chance of Alito retiring by July 15, 2026, largely because a major news outlet (NPR) prematurely published and then retracted a retirement story, which appears to have been a false alarm rather than a credible leak.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts an Alito retirement by year-end 2026, but the recent 2-point uptick in Yes odds is almost entirely noise from a high-profile NPR retraction on June 30, not from any real signal about Alito's plans.

Yes ≈ 12% chance