Iran leadership change by...?

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a leadership change by July 31 despite recent speculation about US and Israeli regime-change efforts, because the actual mechanism for removing Mojtaba Khamenei within days appears nonexistent. The real story is that foreign pressure is rising, but internal Iranian political dynamics and the sheer speed required make a 'Yes' resolution extremely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a leadership change despite a dramatic external shock (Khamenei's death in February), reflecting deep skepticism that the Islamic Republic's succession mechanisms or internal politics will produce a de facto change in Mojtaba Khamenei's position by year-end.

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance