Cuban regime falls in 2026?

✨ Despite a slight uptick in Yes odds this week, the market heavily favors the regime surviving, reflecting the PCC's deep-rooted institutional control; the real story is that economic collapse and external pressure have so far failed to produce a clear political rupture, and the recent movement likely stems from news of Raúl Castro's indictment and rising Trump administration impatience, both of which increase uncertainty without guaranteeing a regime fall.

Yes ≈ 18% chance