Putin out as President of Russia by...?
5 markets · 11mo
This market asks whether Vladimir Putin will no longer be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. The current odds heavily favor 'No' at 91%, reflecting the strong institutional and security apparatus that has kept Putin in power for over two decades. Resolution hinges on any event—resignation, death, coup, or constitutional change—that removes him before the deadline.
The case for YES
- • Putin's health has been a recurring topic of speculation, with unconfirmed reports of serious illness that could lead to an unexpected vacancy.
- • A sudden political crisis, such as a major military defeat or internal elite split, could force Putin from power earlier than expected.
- • The 2024 presidential election, while tightly controlled, could see unforeseen challenges or a managed transition if the regime decides to change leadership.
The case for NO
- • Putin has systematically consolidated power, eliminating political rivals and controlling state institutions, making a forced exit highly unlikely.
- • The Russian constitution and security services are structured to maintain continuity, and no credible opposition or succession mechanism exists.
- • Historical precedent shows that Russian leaders in power for decades rarely leave voluntarily, and the current odds at 91% reflect strong market consensus against a change.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
The market heavily favors Putin staying in power through 2026, but a flurry of recent headlines about his isolation, war-spending chaos, and even large bets on his downfall suggest the 9% 'Yes' probability reflects a non-trivial tail risk that is being actively debated.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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