Who will be arrested before 2027?
24 markets · —
This event hinges on whether any high-profile political figure is arrested by 2027, which would require an extraordinary break with legal precedent given the stature of the listed individuals; the markets heavily favor 'No' across the board, reflecting a consensus that prosecutions of such figures are extremely unlikely under current norms.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, no major US or international political figure of equivalent rank to those listed (former presidents, governors, top officials) has been arrested in a politically charged case that proceeded to trial, setting a base rate near 0% for such events.
What's driving it
- • The consistently high 'No' odds across all individuals (84-97%) suggest traders see a systemic barrier that applies equally to both parties and all roles, likely due to the high legal bar for arresting political elites and the political fallout such moves would cause (implied by uniform odds, no contrary headline provided).
- • The odds for Tom Homan (No 84%) are the lowest among the group, indicating slightly more perceived risk for that name, but still a strong lean against arrest.
- • No clear catalyst from recent headlines explains the current odds levels, as no notable arrests or legal actions against these figures have been reported recently.
The bullish case
- • A Department of Justice under a new administration could pursue high-profile prosecutions of political opponents, as seen in past investigations (e.g., Mueller probe), though none led to arrests of this magnitude.
- • A sudden leak of evidence or testimony in an ongoing investigation (e.g., against Tom Homan) could trigger a formal charge, but no such development has been reported.
- • State-level prosecutors, like those in New York or California, could pursue charges against federal figures (e.g., Gavin Newsom) if new evidence emerges, though state-federal tensions typically prevent this.
The bearish case
- • Arresting a former president, governor, or senior official would require overcoming procedural immunities, political backlash, and the high standard of proof for major crimes, making it nearly impossible without a severe scandal - none currently evident.
- • The 'No' odds likely reflect a strong precedence that elite political figures are rarely charged, let alone arrested, due to plea deals, statute of limitations, or lack of sufficient evidence (as seen with Clinton's email probe ending without charges).
- • The uniform market confidence across all names (all above 84%) suggests traders view any such arrest as a black swan event, with no single individual showing a plausible path to arrest within the timeframe.
What to watch
- • The 2026 US midterm elections (November 3, 2026) could shift political control, potentially emboldening prosecutors; if a party wins overwhelmingly, odds for 'Yes' on the opposing side's figures might increase.
- • Any public release of a major investigative report or indictment from a special counsel before 2027 would directly raise 'Yes' odds for the named individual.
- • A surprise resignation or public admission of wrongdoing by one of these figures (timing unknown) could immediately spike 'Yes' probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
The market heavily doubts an arrest of Anthony Fauci before 2027, but recent GOP calls for a special counsel and warnings about his Senate testimony show the political pressure is real, even if legal action remains unlikely.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
Brennan's odds have plunged 16 points in a week, driven by his own legal counterattack—suing to preserve records—which signals he is preparing for a long legal fight, not an imminent arrest.
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?
The market heavily discounts a Letitia James arrest before 2027, reflecting that no credible legal threat or investigation targeting her personally has emerged, and her recent high-profile activity—suing major chemical companies over 'forever chemicals'—shows she remains an active, unimpeded state official.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Hillary Clinton
The market sees Hillary Clinton's arrest before 2027 as extremely unlikely (4% Yes), reflecting that no credible legal threat or investigation has emerged in recent headlines, which instead show her engaged in normal post-political activities like media projects and social events.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
Despite a 95% market belief that Gavin Newsom will not be arrested before 2027, the odds reflect a lack of any credible criminal investigation or legal threat, not a guarantee of safety; the real story is the absence of a catalyst for arrest, not active exoneration.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?
The market sees Obama's arrest before 2027 as extremely unlikely, with odds at 3%, reflecting his continued public engagement and lack of any credible legal threat. Recent headlines show him in positive, non-legal contexts, reinforcing the baseline assumption that a former president with no pending charges or investigations is not at risk.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?
Tom Homan's arrest odds remain low and are dropping because Trump has publicly backed his contentious ICE vehicle-stop policy, confirming that the border czar retains full political cover and faces no known criminal jeopardy despite inflammatory rhetoric.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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