Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in July?
7 markets · 5d
Mt. Washington July wind speeds are heavily favored to reach at least 100 mph but fall short of 105 mph, making the 105 mph threshold the key battleground.
What's driving it
- • The 100% odds for ≥85 and ≥90 mph indicate near-certainty that speeds will exceed these thresholds, reflecting consistent July climatology (no clear catalyst recently).
- • The sharp drop in confidence at ≥105 mph (24% Yes, 76% No) suggests a strong market consensus that 105 mph is an upper bound typical for July storms.
The bullish case
- • The 99% probability for ≥100 mph shows that wind speeds are already high, and a small additional boost from a thunderstorm could push past 105 mph.
- • Late July can see strong low-pressure systems or convective events that produce extreme gusts exceeding 105 mph, consistent with the non-zero Yes odds.
The bearish case
- • The 76% No probability for ≥105 mph reflects strong market confidence that typical July winds do not reach that level.
- • Climatological data (implied by the odds) suggests July is a relatively low-wind month on the peak, with few days exceeding 105 mph even in active weather.
What to watch
- • A forecast for a strong low-pressure system in the final week of July would likely increase Yes odds for ≥105 mph.
- • Daily wind reports from the Mt. Washington Observatory showing increasing gusts could move the market toward higher thresholds.
- • End-of-month wind data summarization would solidify the final reading and may cause odds to converge.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 85 mph? — ≥85 mph
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 90 mph? — ≥90 mph
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph? — ≥95 mph
The market is pricing near-certainty that Mt. Washington will see a 95+ mph wind gust this July, but the historical record shows July is the calmest month on the summit, with a median maximum gust around 70 mph and only a handful of July days ever reaching 95 mph — making the 99% odds a dramatic overreaction to recent regional storms that occurred outside of July.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 100 mph? — ≥100 mph
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 105 mph? — ≥105 mph
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 110 mph? — ≥110 mph
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 115 mph? — ≥115 mph
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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