Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by July 31?
6 markets · 5d
The market cluster is pricing a near-certain floor of 1,800 cases (95% Yes) but is split on whether the count will reach 5,000 (55% Yes), indicating the key uncertainty is the outbreak's acceleration rate, not its existence. The high odds for 2,000+ (95%) and 2,500+ (89%) suggest traders expect a moderate surge, but the sharp drop-off at 5,000+ (55%) and the strong No at 10,000+ (91%) show skepticism that this will become a major national outbreak.
📊 Base rate: The median annual U.S. cyclosporiasis case count from 2018–2022 was about 1,200, with the largest recent outbreak in 2018 reaching roughly 2,300 confirmed cases, so the current 76% odds for 3,000+ are historically high relative to typical years.
What's driving it
- • No specific headlines provided for 2026; the odds imply traders are reacting to the seasonal peak (typically June–August) and possibly early reports of clusters, but no clear catalyst is named in the data.
- • The steep odds gradient between 2,500+ (89%) and 5,000+ (55%) suggests the market is pricing a moderate outbreak similar to 2018 levels, not a repeat of the larger 2013 outbreak (~630 cases).
- • The 91% No on 10,000+ indicates traders believe public health interventions or the natural epidemiology will cap spread well below that threshold.
The bullish case
- • Summer produce imports (e.g., cilantro, basil) from endemic regions like Peru or Guatemala often introduce the parasite, and a warm, wet season could amplify transmission.
- • If early case counts are already elevated by mid-July, the lag in reporting (2 weeks) could push confirmed totals past 3,000 by month-end.
- • The 55% odds for 5,000+ show a non-trivial chance that a single large foodborne outbreak (e.g., at a restaurant chain) drives a spike.
The bearish case
- • Cyclosporiasis is often underreported, and the 5,000+ threshold requires a multi-state outbreak that surpasses most recent years, which is unlikely without a major contaminated product.
- • Public health agencies (CDC, FDA) typically issue rapid traceback investigations and recalls, which can cut outbreaks short before they reach high case counts.
- • The 91% No on 10,000+ reflects the historical ceiling: the largest U.S. outbreak on record (2018) was about 2,300 cases, making 10,000+ a statistical outlier.
What to watch
- • A CDC or FDA announcement of a multistate outbreak investigation linked to a specific produce item (e.g., bagged salad) would push Yes odds higher across thresholds.
- • End-of-July case count updates from state health departments, if they show a steep week-over-week increase, would boost the 5,000+ market.
- • If no major recall or cluster is reported by July 25, the odds for higher thresholds (5,000+, 10,000+) would likely fall as the seasonal window narrows.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 1800+
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 2000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 2000+
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 2500+
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 3000+
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 5000+
The market prices a 57% chance of a historically high 5,000 cyclosporiasis cases, driven by a rapidly expanding multi-state outbreak linked to Taco Bell and lettuce, but the threshold is roughly double any prior U.S. outbreak.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 10000+
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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