Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 20% chance

✨ The Netherlands explicitly ruled out recognition as recently as August 2025, and its governing coalition — led by Geert Wilders' PVV — is among the most pro-Israel in the EU, making a formal recognition within six months a near-structural impossibility rather than merely unlikely.

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance

✨ The 4% odds reflect that despite a wave of Western recognitions in 2025 (U.K., Australia, Canada), Austria has shown no formal movement and faces a tight 2026 deadline with no recent government initiative, making a shift before year-end highly unlikely without a major EU-wide policy change.

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 12% chance