PolymarketWorldOpenUpdated 33m ago
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
39 markets · 1mo
AI overview· Updated 16h ago
The market sees a high likelihood of no Houthi shipping attacks on most upcoming dates, treating the July 24 attack as an anomaly, but near-term uncertainty remains higher.
What's driving it
- • The 100% Yes on July 24 confirms a recent successful attack, but the subsequent markets show a sharp decline in Yes probability, indicating the market views this as a one-off event.
- • The increasing No odds for later dates (e.g., 91% for August 20 vs 71% for July 26) suggest growing confidence in sustained absence of attacks over time.
- • The market structure implies expectations of effective deterrence or a temporary lull, though no specific headlines are provided to explain the shift.
The bullish case
- • The July 24 success demonstrates that Houthi attacks can still penetrate defenses, setting a precedent for future attempts.
- • Ongoing regional tensions and Houthi statements of solidarity with Palestinians provide continued motivation for targeting shipping.
- • The lower confidence for July 26 (29% Yes) compared to later dates suggests some near-term risk remains.
The bearish case
- • The high No probabilities for most dates reflect market belief in improved naval patrols and defensive measures reducing attack viability.
- • The pattern of declining Yes odds over time implies expectations of de-escalation or diplomatic progress.
- • The July 24 attack may have been opportunistic, and without further catalysts, the Houthis may not sustain the pace.
What to watch
- • The resolution of the July 26 market will provide a real-time test of the current odds, potentially shifting views on subsequent dates.
- • Any reported incident of a Houthi attack or failed attempt in the coming days would immediately shift odds upward for remaining dates.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Polymarket
Resolved
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 24, 2026?
Yes100¢
No0¢
Yes ≈ 100% chance
$9.6K VolClosed
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 25, 2026?
Yes52¢
No48¢
Yes ≈ 52% chance
$1.3K Vol 13ptsClosed
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?
Yes13¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$5K Vol 16pts15h
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 27, 2026?
Yes23¢
No77¢
Yes ≈ 23% chance
$813 Vol 8pts1d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 28, 2026?
Yes19¢
No81¢
Yes ≈ 19% chance
$840 Vol 3pts2d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 29, 2026?
Yes21¢
No79¢
Yes ≈ 21% chance
$404 Vol 8pts3d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 30, 2026?
Yes22¢
No78¢
Yes ≈ 22% chance
$422 Vol 6pts4d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?
Yes17¢
No83¢
Yes ≈ 17% chance
$586 Vol 6pts5d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 1, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$1.8K Vol 2pts6d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 2, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$360 Vol 1pts7d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 3, 2026?
Yes17¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 17% chance
$1.9K Vol 1pts8d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 4, 2026?
Yes10¢
No91¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
$380 Vol 4pts9d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?
Yes15¢
No85¢
Yes ≈ 15% chance
$402 Vol 0pts10d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 6, 2026?
Yes7¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 7% chance
$844 Vol 6pts11d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 7, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$441 Vol12d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 8, 2026?
Yes10¢
No91¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
$536 Vol 5pts13d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 9, 2026?
Yes40¢
No60¢
Yes ≈ 40% chance
$431 Vol 1pts14d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 10, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$298 Vol 0pts15d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?
Yes13¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$1.1K Vol 0pts16d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 12, 2026?
Yes15¢
No85¢
Yes ≈ 15% chance
$280 Vol 2pts17d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
Yes17¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 17% chance
$289 Vol 8pts18d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 14, 2026?
Yes13¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$239 Vol19d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?
Yes10¢
No91¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
$1.5K Vol 1pts20d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 16, 2026?
Yes13¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$1.2K Vol 1pts21d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?
Yes14¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$1.3K Vol 2pts22d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 18, 2026?
Yes11¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
$398 Vol 1pts23d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 19, 2026?
Yes17¢
No84¢
Yes ≈ 17% chance
$942 Vol 1pts24d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?
Yes6¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 6% chance
$2.3K Vol 4pts25d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?
The market heavily favors 'No' at 87%, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a specific kinetic strike on a commercial ship weeks in advance, but the odds are not extreme enough to rule out a low-probability event given the Houthis' demonstrated capability and intent.
Yes15¢
No85¢
Yes ≈ 15% chance
$1.4K Vol 2pts26d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 22, 2026?
Yes38¢
No62¢
Yes ≈ 38% chance
$8 Vol 5pts27d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 23, 2026?
Yes21¢
No79¢
Yes ≈ 21% chance
$65 Vol 5pts28d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?
Yes33¢
No67¢
Yes ≈ 33% chance
$214 Vol 1pts29d
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 25, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$1.6K Vol 3pts1mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 26, 2026?
Yes31¢
No69¢
Yes ≈ 31% chance
$182 Vol 3pts1mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 27, 2026?
Yes13¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$1.2K Vol 1pts1mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 28, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$166 Vol1mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 29, 2026?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
$909 Vol 2pts1mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 30, 2026?
Yes6¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 6% chance
$1.1K Vol 6pts1mo
Polymarket
Open
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 31, 2026?
Yes13¢
No87¢
Yes ≈ 13% chance
$2.3K Vol 2pts1mo
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
optional stance
Loading…