Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
10 markets · 5mo
The market expects a moderate measles outbreak in 2026, with near-certainty that cases will exceed 500 and 1,000, but strong skepticism that they will surpass 10,000, reflecting confidence in public health containment despite rising cases.
What's driving it
- • The 100% odds on ↑500 and ↑1k indicate traders see a baseline outbreak, likely driven by ongoing vaccination gaps and recent local outbreaks (e.g., Texas, Florida) reported in early 2026.
- • The sharp drop in confidence above 3k (74% Yes) to 76% No at 4k suggests a belief that containment measures will cap spread below historical highs, possibly due to CDC interventions or seasonal waning.
- • The 94% No at 10k implies a strong consensus that the U.S. will avoid a large-scale epidemic, consistent with high population immunity and rapid response capabilities.
The bullish case
- • Declining vaccination rates in some communities, as seen in 2025 CDC data showing MMR coverage below 90% in pockets, could fuel sustained transmission.
- • Recent importations from global hotspots (e.g., India, Europe) in early 2026 have seeded local clusters, increasing the risk of exceeding 3,000 cases.
- • The 74% Yes at 3k suggests traders anticipate a moderate surge, possibly driven by school outbreaks or travel-related spread during spring 2026.
The bearish case
- • Strong public health infrastructure, including CDC outbreak response and school exclusion policies, historically limits large outbreaks, supporting the 94% No at 10k.
- • High overall vaccination rates (above 95% nationally) and herd immunity in most regions make a massive outbreak unlikely, as reflected in the steep drop after 3k.
- • Seasonal factors, such as summer recess reducing school transmission, may keep cases below 4k, aligning with the 76% No at that threshold.
What to watch
- • CDC weekly measles surveillance reports (ongoing, every Friday) – a sudden spike in new cases would push odds up for higher thresholds, especially 4k and 5k.
- • Back-to-school vaccination campaigns in August 2026 – if uptake is low, odds for 5k+ could rise; if high, they may fall.
- • Any confirmed case in a major airport or mass gathering (e.g., upcoming July 4th events) – a single super-spreader event could shift odds toward 7.5k or 10k.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑3.5k
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑500
The market has already priced in a Yes resolution at 100%, indicating that traders believe the 500-case threshold has been crossed or is inevitable based on the scale of outbreaks reported in early 2026 — the question is no longer if but when the CDC counter will confirm.
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑1k
With the CDC already reporting multiple-state outbreaks and over 170 cases by mid-July, the market has priced in near-certainty that the tally will reach 1,000 by year-end, driven by a resurgence of measles fueled by vaccination gaps and imported cases from severe regional epidemics abroad.
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑2k
The market has already resolved to 100% Yes because the CDC's measles case counter for 2026 has surpassed 2000 cases, driven by multiple ongoing outbreaks across the U.S. and internationally, making the question moot.
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑5k
The low 17% odds for 5,000+ measles cases reflect a counterintuitive global outbreak context: as outbreaks rage internationally and slip across borders, the U.S. has so far contained them to isolated clusters, making the 5,000-case threshold a steep hurdle after decades of near-elimination.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑10k
Despite a recent uptick to 171 confirmed cases across nine states, the market heavily discounts the possibility of reaching 10,000 cases in 2026, a threshold far above any annual count since the U.S. declared measles eliminated in 2000.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑7.5k
Despite global outbreaks and local vaccination gaps, the U.S. has not seen a nationwide surge, but the recent 4-point uptick in Yes odds reflects growing concern that imported cases and low vaccination rates in pockets could combine to produce a historically large outbreak.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑12.5k
The market is heavily pricing against 12,500 U.S. measles cases in 2026 because the threshold is roughly ten times the record high of 1,282 cases in 2019, and while multiple U.S. outbreaks have been reported this year, none have approached the scale needed to push the total that high.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑3k
The market is heavily pricing a >3000 case year because ongoing U.S. outbreaks and simultaneous global mortality events signal sustained transmission chains, even though the CDC counter is usually suppressed by public-health interventions.
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑4k
Despite a handful of localized outbreaks and low vaccination rates in some communities, the U.S. is on track for far fewer than 4,000 measles cases in 2026, with only 171 confirmed through mid-July — a pace that would need to accelerate more than 20-fold in the remaining five months to hit the threshold.
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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