Why do different venues disagree?
Same question, different prices: the gap comes from audience, liquidity, fees and contract wording.
Same question, different prices
Polymarket might price an outcome at 62% while Kalshi has 58% and Manifold 65%. Differences come from each venue's audience, liquidity, fees, and how its contract is worded — even small wording changes can move the number.
Real money vs play money
Some venues use real money (Polymarket, Kalshi), some use play money (Manifold's Mana). Play-money markets are still useful crowd forecasts, but they're not directly comparable to real-money depth — which is why we label and weight them differently.
One blended number
PredictPal matches the same question across venues and publishes one liquidity-weighted blended probability — the PredictPal Consensus — plus the spread between venues. It's a single, neutral number that no individual platform can give you.
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