Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
The market heavily favors a sub-80°F high at LAX on July 26, 2026, reflecting the coastal location's typical summer marine layer despite a historic March heat wave that shattered records across the Southwest.
📊 Base rate: The historical probability of Los Angeles International Airport reaching 80°F on July 26 is approximately 15-20% based on 30-year climate normals (NOAA data).
What's driving it
- • The March 2026 heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19) set records but occurred in spring, not summer, and may not be indicative of late July conditions.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (LA Daily News, May 28) indicates ongoing monitoring but no specific forecast for July 26.
- • Ocean heat records off California (LA Times, Apr 16) could imply warmer sea surface temperatures, which might enhance coastal fog and keep temperatures cooler near the coast, paradoxically.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heat wave (USA Today, Mar 17) shows the region is capable of extreme temperatures; if a similar pattern recurs in July, 80°F could be easily exceeded.
- • The ocean heat records (LA Times, Apr 16) could lead to a warmer air mass if the marine layer is suppressed, allowing temperatures to rise.
- • Over 1,500 records shattered in the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22) indicates a persistent heat dome pattern that could return.
The case for NO
- • LAX's coastal location typically experiences a marine layer in July, keeping highs in the mid-70s; 80°F is well above the average high of 75°F.
- • The March heat wave was an anomaly driven by a specific synoptic pattern that is unlikely to repeat exactly in late July.
- • The new Heat Dashboard (LA Daily News, May 28) suggests preparedness but does not indicate an imminent heat event; no recent forecasts show a heat wave for late July.
What to watch
- • NOAA's 8-14 day outlook for late July 2026 (around July 12-18) would provide a temperature probability forecast; if it shows above-normal chances, Yes could rise.
- • Any heat wave warnings or excessive heat watches issued for Los Angeles County in the week before July 26 would push Yes higher.
- • The daily weather forecast for July 26 from the National Weather Service about 3-5 days out would be a major catalyst; a forecast of 80°F+ would spike Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
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