Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
The market heavily favors a high temperature below 81°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong climatological bias against reaching that threshold in late July, but the odds are not extreme enough to rule out a brief heat spike.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles (downtown) shows that daily high temperatures reach or exceed 81°F on roughly 10-15% of July 26 dates over the past 30 years, making the current 8% Yes odds slightly below the upper end of that range.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently — the odds appear driven by persistent climatological patterns rather than a specific news event.
The case for YES
- • A strong Santa Ana wind event or a marine layer collapse could push temperatures above 81°F even in late July, as seen in occasional heatwaves.
- • Urban heat island effects in Los Angeles can amplify daytime highs by several degrees, potentially tipping a borderline forecast over the threshold.
- • The 8% odds imply a non-trivial chance, consistent with the historical frequency of such highs on this date.
The case for NO
- • Late July in coastal Los Angeles typically sees a persistent marine layer and onshore flow, capping highs in the mid-70s to low 80s, making 81°F a relatively high bar.
- • Climate normals for July 26 show a median high around 75-78°F, with extreme highs above 81°F occurring only in about 10-15% of years.
- • The strong 92% No odds reflect a consensus that the climatological odds are against reaching that specific temperature.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service forecast for July 26 issued 3-5 days prior, if it predicts a high near or above 81°F, would likely shift odds toward Yes.
- • A strong high-pressure system developing over the Southwest in the week before July 26 could increase Yes probability by raising the likelihood of a heat event.
- • Any unexpected marine layer retreat or offshore wind event in the 48 hours before the date would move odds toward Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes