Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_88
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
With only a 2% implied probability of Los Angeles hitting 88°F on July 26, 2026, the market is pricing an extreme heat event as highly unlikely, likely because climatological records for late July in LA show daily highs peaking around 85°F on average, and this specific threshold is above the typical maximum.
📊 Base rate: Based on historical weather data for Los Angeles in late July, the high temperature has exceeded 88°F in less than 5% of years, establishing a strong prior against such an occurrence.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds have likely settled near the climatological base rate for a 88°F high in Los Angeles on July 26.
- • The persistently low odds reflect the consensus among weather models and historical averages that late-July highs in LA typically range from 75°F to 85°F.
The case for YES
- • A lingering heatwave or Santa Ana wind event could push temperatures above normal, as has happened in rare past July 26 dates (e.g., 2006 saw a high of 95°F).
- • Short-term predictive forecasts issued a few days before July 26 might shift if a strong ridge of high pressure develops over Southern California.
The case for NO
- • Climatological records for Los Angeles show that July 26 highs historically average around 82°F, with 88°F being a roughly 1-in-20-year event.
- • Current odds (2%) already embed the low probability, and without an imminent heat wave forecast, the default outcome is overwhelmingly a cooler day.
What to watch
- • National Weather Service extended outlooks (issued around July 20-24, 2026) predicting above-normal temperatures for Southern California would move odds upward.
- • Any localized heat warnings or advisories issued by July 25 for July 26 would rapidly increase Yes odds.
- • Cool marine layer conditions or onshore flow forecasts in the days before July 26 would further suppress Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes