Average global surface air temperature anomaly in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Between 1.43 °C and 1.47 °C (inclusive) at about a 50% chance — a coin toss.
The field is highly concentrated, with the 1.43–1.47°C bin alone holding 50%—a near-majority—driven by persistent record-warm sea surface temperatures throughout early 2026, which anchor surface air temperature anomalies. The single biggest recent shift was the April 2026 Copernicus data showing surface air temperatures still elevated, reinforcing the front-runner.
📊 Base rate: Omitted – no defensible historical prior exists for annual global temperature anomalies in a prediction market format with this specific bin structure.
What's driving it
- • Daily global sea surface temperatures broke records for the time of year as of July 1, 2026, directly supporting the 1.43–1.47°C bin by keeping ocean heat content high (Copernicus, Jul 1).
- • May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record globally, per C3S, maintaining the elevated temperature trend that underpins the leading bin (Sustainability Online, Jun 10).
- • April 2026 saw the second-highest sea surface temperatures on record, extending a multi-month pattern that limits cooling and pushes the anomaly above 1.43°C (Down To Earth, May 8).
- • The April 2026 surface air temperature report from Copernicus showed continued warmth, anchoring the market’s expectation that the year will finish in the 1.43–1.47°C range (Copernicus Climate Change Service, Apr 30).
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 1.43–1.47°C bin benefits from a full half-year of record-warm SSTs, which directly raise global surface air anomalies via ocean-atmosphere heat exchange (Copernicus, Jul 1).
- • The 1.39–1.42°C bin, at 18%, is supported by the possibility of a late-year La Niña developing; a 2026 Nature study improved seasonal predictions of global mean temperature by incorporating ENSO forecasts, but so far no strong cooling has emerged (Nature, Mar 24).
- • The 1.48–1.51°C bin ties at 18% because a rapid ENSO shift to El Niño conditions could spike anomalies, though the 2023 extreme temperature jump was linked to physical processes not yet repeated in 2026 (Nature, Mar 19).
Why it's still open
- • The below-1.39°C bin, at 7%, could overtake the front-runner only if a major volcanic eruption injects sulfate aerosols and cools the planet by ~0.3°C, but no such event has occurred or is forecast in headlines.
- • The 1.52°C-or-higher bin, at 7%, would require an unforeseen global heat event akin to the 2023 jump; the April and May data show warming, but not enough to breach the >1.52°C threshold without a strong El Niño (Sustainability Online, Jun 10).
- • The field remains open to a shift downward if persistent cloud cover or a sudden aerosol increase from shipping or industrial changes emerges, but no headlines substantiate such a mechanism.
What to watch
- • Copernicus's July 2026 monthly temperature anomaly report (expected early August): if July sea surface records continue, it would push odds further into the 1.43–1.47°C bin or even the 1.48–1.51°C bin.
- • ENSO forecast update from NOAA or C3S in late August 2026: a forecast of La Niña could shift probability toward the 1.39–1.42°C bin, while a neutral or El Niño forecast would reinforce the front-runners.
- • The final Copernicus global surface temperature anomaly for the full year (expected January 2027): this is the resolution event, but earlier monthly data will serve as stepping stones.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
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