Will the price of Gold be above 5300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price at year end? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.
Gold's current price around $4,000 is 32% below the $5,300 target, and the metal just suffered its worst quarter in 13 years with a 'death cross' signal, making the 12% Yes odds a plausible reflection of the massive rally needed.
📊 Base rate: Gold has exceeded a 30% gain in a six-month period only about 8% of the time since 1970, based on monthly returns (source: World Gold Council data).
What's driving it
- • Gold's worst quarter in 13 years and a 'death cross' appeared in early July, signaling sustained bearish momentum (Business Insider, Jul 1).
- • Price remains stuck below the 20-day EMA, struggling to recover above $4,100 despite Fed minutes and Hormuz risk (Mitrade, Jul 6; Kitco, Jul 7).
- • Multiple forecasts show bulls only weighing a bounce above $4,000, not the $5,300 level required for a Yes resolution (FOREX.com, Jul 8).
The case for YES
- • A severe escalation in the Hormuz Strait crisis could spike gold above $5,300 if supply lines are disrupted (Kitco, Jul 7 notes ongoing risk).
- • If the Federal Reserve pivots aggressively dovish later this year, gold could rally sharply from current levels, though no headline suggests such a pivot.
- • A simultaneous sell-off in equities and a flight to safety could push gold to record highs, but no recent catalyst points to that outcome.
The case for NO
- • Gold would need to rise roughly $1,200 (32%) in six months, a historically rare move given the current bearish technicals and the death cross signal (Business Insider, Jul 1).
- • The Fed's hawkish stance and the metal's failure to hold above $4,100 even with geopolitical support suggest strong resistance below $5,300 (Forex Factory, Jul 8; Kitco, Jul 7).
- • No headline or recent event provides a plausible path to the $5,300 level; the current odds are consistent with the wide gap between spot and target.
What to watch
- • Next FOMC meeting (September 2026) — if the Fed signals a cut, Yes odds could rise; if hawkish, No odds strengthen further.
- • Monthly US CPI releases (August–December 2026) — persistently high inflation could boost gold, while declining inflation would reinforce the No case.
- • Geopolitical flashpoints (e.g., Hormuz, Ukraine) — a sudden escalation could drive a sharp spike, but the magnitude needed to reach $5,300 makes this a low-probability catalyst.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 5300 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
XRP Up or Down - Daily
Despite a series of bearish headlines highlighting an 80% drop in XRP Ledger payments and risks of a break below $1, the daily market has swung to 65% odds of an up day, gaining 4 points in 24 hours—suggesting traders are betting on a short-term bounce rather than the prevailing negative narrative.
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The real story is that SUI's price is caught between a surge in network usage and a history of technical failures, with the odds slightly favoring an up day but far from certain.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
With no public headlines or recent events to cite, the 2% Yes / 98% No odds appear to reflect the extreme difficulty of a sumo wrestler staying undefeated for an entire calendar year, a feat rarely achieved in the sport's history.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance